U.S. intelligence agencies have warned the Trump administration that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to take steps to undermine President Donald Trump's peace deal with Iran due to domestic political pressure.
Recent intelligence assessments indicate Netanyahu intends to escalate military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon to demonstrate to Israeli voters that he will not withdraw IDF forces ahead of fall elections. This potential escalation directly threatens a central component of the newly signed 14-point memorandum of understanding, which mandates a ceasefire in Lebanon as a condition for lifting sanctions on Iran and opening the Strait of Hormuz.
Diverging strategic priorities have intensified tensions between the two allies, with the U.S. focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war, while Israel seeks to maintain maximum pressure on Tehran and its proxies. U.S. officials report that Jerusalem fears the agreement will constrain its ability to defend itself against Hezbollah, leading some Israeli officials to openly criticize the deal as a capitulation.
In response to recent Israeli strikes in Beirut that jeopardized negotiations, President Trump publicly admonished Netanyahu to use a "softer touch," while Vice President JD Vance warned Israel to "wake up and smell the reality" of its diplomatic isolation.
In deadly fire exchanges in southern Lebanon, an advancing four-person IDF tank crew was killed by Hezbollah militants, prompting further Israeli air strikes and ground operations in areas like Kfar Tebnit, Tayr Debba, and Tyre; over 80 targets targeted across southern Lebanon, despite the ceasefire brokered by the U.S. and Qatar.
Israeli forces broke the temporary ceasefire announced Friday, as fighting intensifies. U.S. intelligence concludes that Netanyahu views a suspension of fighting or troop withdrawal as a political defeat that could endanger his survival in the upcoming Knesset elections.
The situation remains volatile, with hardline Israeli ministers calling for intensified attacks even as the U.S. attempts to finalize the broader peace framework.
Public friction between Trump and Netanyahu has grown. The U.S. president has reportedly called Netanyahu "crazy" or difficult in calls and said he must keep him "sane." Israel views the peace deal with Iran as a "catastrophic capitulation" that fails its war aims.