Days before launching Operation Epic Fury on February 28, US President Donald Trump was reportedly warned by then-Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard that killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would backfire by installing a more hardline successor eager for nuclear weapons.
Gabbard briefed Trump that attack on Iran will trigger the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, destabilize global energy markets, and prompt Iranian retaliation against U.S. forces and Gulf allies.
Despite these explicit intelligence assessments and similar cautions from Vice President JD Vance and senior military leaders regarding potential casualties and depleted stockpiles, Trump proceeded with the strikes, persuaded by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine who argued for decisive military strikes.
The war has resulted in the death of Khamenei on the first day but failed to topple the regime or achieve a quick resolution as initially promised. The conflict is in its sixth month with 18 U.S. service members killed, 3,000 Iranians dead, and significant economic fallout including high oil prices and damaged American assets.
Gabbard, who had previously clashed with Trump over Iran’s nuclear timeline and was sidelined from pre-war planning, left the administration in May 2026, while the White House now faces pressure from Gulf allies and domestic political concerns to end a war that intelligence had predicted would have unwieldy consequences.